The global oil demand in 2025 will reach 100.3 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast. The agency also revised downward its oil price assessment to 83 USD per barrel in 2025, as a result of the increase of yields in the US.
Between 2016 and 2025, the global demand for oil will grow by an average of 0.7 million barrels per day. However, after 2025, the pace will slow down and in the mid-2040 the indicator will grow by an average of 0.3 million barrels per day, according to a report released today by the IEA World Energy Outlook.
By 2040, world demand will not reach its peak, according to the IEA experts. Then it will be 105 million barrels per day. The forecast is revised upward by 1.4 million barrels compared to last year.
The number of cars by 2040 will double, but they will be more energy efficient. At that time there will be about 280 million electric vehicles, shows the forecast, which will be about 15% of the world automobiles.
The IEA expects the price of a barrel of oil in the year 2025 to reach 83 USD, which is 18 USD less than last year’s estimate against a backdrop of expectations for increased US shale oil production. For 2040, the IEA expects the price of barrel oil to be 111 USD, which is 14 USD less than last year’s forecast.
The IEA has hardly changed its forecast for oil and gas condensate by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) by 2025 and expects the indicator to be 39.8 million barrels per day, compared to 39.6 million barrels per day in 2016.
Against the backdrop of active non-cartel mining growth, especially in the US, the OPEC members will barely be able to hold a market share of just over 40%. The IEA expects in 2025 oil production in Russia to drop to 10.5 million barrels per day from 11.3 million barrels per day in 2016 and continue to decline in the long run against a decline of stocks.
According to the IEA, Russia will increase gas production by 2025 to 718 billion cubic meters, and by 2040 to 788 billion cubic meters.
According to the baseline scenario, by 2025, global gas production is expected to be 4.2 trillion cubic meters and by 2040 to 5.3 trillion cubic meters.